CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001)

Revised prediction
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## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-08T00:41:00Z
## Message ID: 20140108-AL-001
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140107-AL-005). Using additional data from SOHO and STEREO, the R-type CME parameters have been updated to following:
Start time of the event: 2014-01-07T18:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~2400 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 68 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 40/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).
Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling with revised CME parameters carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact Earth, MAVEN, Mars, and Juno. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at the revised time of around 2014-01-09T00:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
The leading edge of the CME is also estimated reach (plus minus 7 hours):
Earth at 2014-01-09T00:38Z
MAVEN at 2014-01-09T00:38Z
Juno at 2014-01-10T18:00Z 
Mars at 2014-01-09T17:55Z 
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
## Notes: 
This CME is associated with the X1.2 flare from active regions 1943 and 1944 which peaked at 2014-01-07T18:31Z (see alert 20140107-AL-002), and SEP event detected at GOES and SOHO with activity ID 2014-01-07T20:30:00-SEP-001 (see alert 20140107-AL-004).
[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score
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Original prediction:
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-07T21:04:57Z
## Message ID: 20140107-AL-005
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140107-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact Earth and MAVEN. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth and MAVEN at about 2014-01-08T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may affect Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-01-09T17:08Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
Updated R-type CME parameters are:
Start time of the event: 2014-01-07T18:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~2750 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 68 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 10/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).
Activity ID: 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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